The Probability of chasing 300 runs in ODIs, in a T20 era

Australia vs India 1-0,
1st ODI 2009 (7 match series)

Australia managed to put up a very strong 292 after batting first in Vadodara on a slowish surface. India dropped chances from Ponting and then Hussey made the most of their second batting powerplay towards the end of the innings.

Chasing about 300 runs in an ODI has never been easy. The bowling side knows that they have margins favoring them, and can implement plans accordingly.

Also, batting sides know that they pretty much have to be on the button from word go. Anything close to 300, demands that batting sides have to be run-a-ball or better to keep the chase within control. But trying to maintain such a strike rate, usually leads to wickets at regular intervals or in a bunch, if some players cannot get going.

Today's game highlighted how things are changing in the way batting side approach their chase of large totals.To begin with let us just see how cricket is different in an era of T20.

Teams typically chase 140-150 runs (are expected to) in 20 overs.So in an ODI, if 140-150 runs remain at the 30 over mark, it seems fair for the batting side, provided they have have not lost any wicket (ideally), and have one powerplay intact. This was the case today, but sort of, since India had lost two wickets. Even if a wicket or two has fallen, it is still fairly probable, since the batsmen are set when 20 overs are left, unlike in a T20, where no batter is ever 'set'.

So the T20 impact has been that teams can consider a 20-30 run deficit (balls minus runs remaining) as a run-a-ball plus 3 or 4 big shots. Again, today, Harbhajan and Praveen Kumar almost pulled off the win, with some crazy hitting of some poor bowling by the Aussies towards the end.

But India's approach by the batters indicated that chasing close to 300 can now be planned in two phases- one of not losing wickets at a reasonable strike rate (150 runs in 30 overs) and then playing it like a T20, with a powerplay in hand.

This almost worked, even if you ignore that the tail-enders were never accounted to score like this. The second power play where Gambhir, Raina and Dhoni got out was the difference. Which again means that treating the second phase as a T20 is not that similar, because bowlers are also well set!

The probability of chasing 300 runs in ODIs is still going to favor the side which batted first (since holding wickets in the first 30 overs is not a given), but clearly there seems to be a method for it, even on slowish wickets like Vadordara today. More importantly, for spectators, such games will not be seen as clearly one-sided.

@saumilzx
25 Oct 2009